Monday, March 18, 2013

Steelers lose free agents

The first week of Free Agency is in the books, and so far the Steelers are considered "losers" in my book. The reason why? The one Steelers free agent I hoped the would retain more than any other, they didn't. Rumor has it they never even made an offer. Lets look at the big players the Steelers lost.

Mike Wallace, WR/Miami Dolphins: I did not expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to keep Wallace. Last offseason they couldn't come to a long-term contract agreement with the speedy wideout and then he held out of training camp by not signing his restricted free agent tender. He wanted big dollars, more than what the Steelers could give him. Also, it's thought that he was unhappy with the fact that the Steelers gave fellow wide receiver Antonio Brown a long term deal last offseason while negotiating with Wallace. His new contract comes out to around $13M a year with the Dolphins.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB/Arizona Cardinals: Mendenhall was once the feature back for the Steelers. But then he tore his ACL at the end of the 2011 season, came back last season and looks lackluster, and ticked off the coaches and front office when he failed to show for a home game because he was upset about not being on the active roster for the game. Put that with some Twitter posts that made him look less than bright in most circles, and the writing was on the wall. I don't think the Steelers had any intent on re-signing the former first round pick.

Keenan Lewis, CB/New Orleans Saints: Losing Lewis is the reason why I feel the Steelers are losers in free agency. Lewis was young, and just had his first season as a starter where he played very well. He could have potentially become the heir to Ike Taylor as the Steelers #1 cornerback. Nobody knows who is going to replace Lewis across from Taylor. The Steelers did sign former Cardinals and Steelers cornerback William Gay. but I can't find anyone who's happy with that signing of this was intended to replace Lewis. The Steelers didn't try to re-sign him when he left for the Cardinals after the 2011-12 season. And then he had a really bad season in Arizona, so there isn't much faith in him being anywhere near as good as Lewis was last year. So I am expecting a competition between Gay, Cortez Allen, and Curtis Brown for the #2 corner spot. It's unknown how well any of those players will perform. The fact that the Steelers are rumored to not even have offered Keenan Lewis a contract tells me one of two things: they feel he isn't as good as us fans think he is, or he put his price outside of what the cap strapped Steelers could afford and they chose to not even waste their time negotiating with him.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

First Round Mock Draft, Version 1.0


2013 NFL Mock Draft Version 1.0

01. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT/Texas A&M
The Chiefs have said that they are going to draft the best player available, but this is a team that doesn’t have a ton of needs. They have a top running back, they are trading for a very good quarterback, their defense isn’t horrible and has some very good players. They are going to need to protect Alex Smith if they want to win games. Once the 49ers really invested in protecting Smith, he began to flourish. Yes, they franchised Branden Albert, but he could be gone next season of they don’t come to a long-term deal. You can also play one of them on the right side, giving you two book end tackles. If the Chiefs are going to throw it as much as I think they will under Andy Reid, then protecting Alex Smith needs to be a big priority.

02. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan,DE-LB/Oregon
The Jaguars have whiffed on the DE position in the past, but they need to upgrade their last place pass rush. Jordan is one of the top pass rushers in the draft, and probably the fastest. Playing in a division with quarterbacks like Matt Schaub and Andrew Luck, you’ll have to get after the quarterback to win in the division. Another option would be an offensive tackle to help make holes for the run game and protect Blaine Gabbert.

03. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, DT/Florida
The Raiders voided the contract of Richard Seymour and should cut Tommy Kelly if they are smart. That leaves them absolutely thin at the defensive tackle position. Floyd is probably the best player available for the Raiders at a position of need. Floyd could be a defensive player the Raiders can build around and bring an identity to their defense.

04. Philadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher, OT/Central Michigan
The Eagles restructured the contract of Michael Vick, and the Eagles need to protect their mobile quarterback. The offensive line is in shambles. Chip Kelly is going to ask Vick to do a lot of things in this offense, so keeping him healthy has to be a priority. If they don’t go with the offensive line, I can see them going with a defensive lineman because they need talent there also.

05. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB/Alabama
The best corner in the draft, Milliner should find himself heading to the Motor City. I know the Lions have taken defensive players in the first round the past few years, but that’s the side of the ball they need to focus on fixing the most because the offensive is explosive, and there isn’t a running back worth taking at this high of a pick. Milliner would help the back end of that defense and give the Lions a potential shut down corner, something they desperately need in a division with Aaron Rogers and Jay Cutler at quarterback.

06. Cleveland Browns: Ezekiel Ansah, DE-LB/BYU
The Browns are moving to a 3-4 base defense, though defensive coordinator Ray Horton is saying it will be a “hybrid” between the 3-4 and 4-3. I don’t believe that for a second because you’d been personnel to run both schemes and there is only a roster of 53 players in the NFL. Ansah would be a rush linebacker for the Browns, but he could put his hand in the dirt if they did go the hybrid route. The Browns pass rush is average at best, and I personally think it’s below average. In a division with Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton…getting to the quarterback is going to be important to win division games. Even with the Browns signing Ravens OLB Paul Kruger, I still think they take Ansah to create what they hope is a dynamic pass rushing duo.

07. Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson, OT/Oklahoma
This isn’t an easy pick because the Cardinals also need to figure out what they are doing at the quarterback position. However, I don’t feel there is a quarterback worthy of being a top ten pick. I am going into this assuming that the Cardinals are going to pay Kevin Kolb’s roster bonus (hence not cutting him) and new head coach Bruce Arians then gives Kolb one more shot at being the guy in Arizona. To do this, they need to protect Kolb (or whoever plays the position). The offensive line has never been a strength for the Cardinals, but Johnson can help strengthen it and protect the Cardinals signal caller.

08.  Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, QB/West Virginia
Now I know I said that I don’t think there’s a quarterback that’s worthy of a top ten pick. But the Bills aren’t the conventional team when it comes to their drafting. General manager Buddy Nix has already said he’s going to take a franchise quarterback in this draft. When he says he’s going to draft a position, he isn’t doing a smoke and mirrors show. Smith is dynamic, and I don’t see the Bills passing on him if he’s available. With the release of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills don’t have a viable starter on the roster. And no, Tavaris Jackson is not a viable starter.

9. New York Jets: Desmond Trufant, CB/Washinton
The Jets shook up their front office this offseason, which makes it difficult to predict what they’ll do. With them looking to trade Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie, either way they are left with a hole at corner. Trufant is rising up draft boards and I can see the Jets taking him to replace one of the two aforementioned cornerbacks. Rex Ryan is a defensive minded coach and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go defense once again. He likes to “ground and pound” and I don’t see a guard going this high (though they need one) and I don’t think they take a RB at this spot either.

10.  Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack, OG/Alabama
The best guard in the draft goes in the top ten to the Titans, coached by  Hall of Fame guard, Mike Munchack. His position coach is also a Hall of Fame offensive lineman, Bruce Matthews. The offensive line of the Titans should be a strength of this team with these two coaching the team, but it isn’t. If CJ2K is going to rush for 2000 yards again like he says he wants to…he needs an upgrade on the offensive line. Warmack can be that upgrade, pulling on traps to spring Johnson for long runs and protecting quarterback Jake Locker.

11. San Diego Chargers: Barkevious Mingo, DE-OLB/LSU
The Chargers can go a few ways with this pick. They can go offensive line, depending on who is still on the board. They can also upgrade their pass rush, needed with Peyton Manning now in the division. So I have them taking Mingo, who can play either rush DE or LB, to apply pressure to Manning.

12. Miami Dolphins: Coradelle Patterson, WR/Tennessee
Even with the Dolphins signing former Steelers speedster Mike Wallace, I still think the Dolphins draft a WR with this pick. They signed Dannell Ellerbe to play middle linebacker, so trading back to take one later doesn’t make sense. However, I expect the Dolphins to be a team that throws the ball like the Packers, so two receivers of a high caliber are needed. The ‘Phins are going to want to take advantage of Tannehill’s big arm.

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Xavier Rhodes, CB/Florida State
The Tampa Bay coaching staff will be dancing in their war room if Rhodes does indeed fall to them at this spot. The Buccs are in need of corner help. Last season they traded talented but troubled off the field corner Aqib Talib to the New England Patriots. Neither of their corners is a #1 corner, and it’s very questionable if either is a #2. So Rhodes would do wonders to upgrade their defensive secondary.

14. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT/Utah
I think the Panthers know their biggest need on defense is defensive tackle after the way they got gashed on the ground last season. I think they’ll look past his heart condition and take the best defensive tackle possible to help plug up the middle of the field, make plays behind the line of scrimmage, and pressure the quarterback. If he is gone, I still expect them to go with a defensive tackle.

15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones, DE-OLB/Georgia
The Saints fired Steve Spagnuolo and announced they’d be moving to the 3-4 defense this season. They hired Rob Ryan to run the defense, but they need players to play the new positions. Jones is the best pass rusher available, only falling this far due to being diagnosed with spinal stenosis his freshman year at USC. The Saints will get one of the best pass rushers of the past few seasons in college football with Jones, who should easily fill that rush LB need.

16. St. Louis Rams: Jonathon Cooper, OG/North Carolina
The Rams need to protect Sam Bradford if they ever want to even get close to their money’s worth out of him. Bradford can be a very good quarterback in the NFL, but they have to protect that investment for his potential to be reached. Taking Cooper should help with that, and also help whoever plays running back for the Rams this year.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jonathon Jenkins, NT/Georgia
The Steelers can go a few different ways with this pick. They could use a rush outside linebacker to replace the recently cut James Harrison. They could go safety due to injury concern with Troy Polamalu. They could go running back of they feel a back deserves to be taken in the first round at all. I think they go NT to find the replacement for Casey Hampton. Hampton is a free agent, and even if he resigns with Pittsburgh, he’s got very few years left of productive play, and some people would say his productive years are behind him. Jenkins has the size, and he played the NT position for Georgia so he has experience at the position too. The Steelers have been getting younger in the trenches the past couple of years, and I fully expect them to keep that trend going with this pick.

18. Dallas Cowboys: D.J. Fluker, OT/Alabama
The Cowboys need to upgrade their right tackle position to protect Tony Romo. Doug Free has been a disappointment at right tackle and if he isn’t cut, he might be moved inside to guard. That would leave them with an even bigger hole at tackle and that’s why they would draft Fluker.

19. New York Giants: Bjoern Werner, DE/Florida State
The Giants love drafting pass rusher. I see them following that model this year and taking Werner out of Florida State. Justin Tuck has a poor season by his standards last season, and Osi Umenyiora being a free agent and possibly wanting to go to another team, this wouldn’t be a shocker.

20. Chicago Bears: Kenny Vaccaro, S/Texas
With the Bears signing Saints OT Bushrod, I think the Bears go with Texas Longorns product Vaccaro. In Lovie Smith’s nine seasons as Bears head coach, they had 50 changes in the starting lineup at the two safety positions. Drafting Vaccaro would strengthen an already strong defense and help solidify a position that has always been difficult for the Bears to fill long-term for various reasons.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Matt Elam, S/Florida
The Bengals need an upgrade at safety, and they would have loved to nab Vaccaro…and they still might if they can trade up a few spots. However, if they can’t get the Texas safety they could definitely settle for Elam, who made a lot of big plays last year for the Gators. Reggie Nelson and Taylor Mays aren’t good enough to hold up the back end of the Bengals defense. Elam would be an upgrade over either of those players.

22. St. Louis Rams: Alec Ogletree, LB/Georgia
James Laurinaitis is a very good middle backer. JoLonn Dunbar played well last season. However, they need an upgrade at strongside and Ogletree fits well with this team. Yes he was arrested for DUI, but the Rams will take chances on players who have had some trouble (see Janoris Jenkins).

23. Minnesota Vikings: Keenan Allen, WR/California
With the Vikings trading their most dynamic player, they are now in need for a starting wide receiver. Allen goes to the Vikings to take over a starting WR roll and they hope he helps develop quarterback Christian Ponder.

24.  Indianapolis Colts: Damontre Moore, DE-OLB/Texas A&M
The Colts signed former Lions first round pick Godser Cherilus to play right tackle, I no longer think they’ll be taking one in the first round. Dwight Freeney was released, so they are down a pass rushing outside linebacker in the second year running a 3-4 defense. So I have them taking Moore to fill that spot, if not immediately likely later in the season.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Jonathan Hankins, DT/Ohio State
The Vikings obtain this pick from trading Harvin to the Seahawks, and after using their original first round pick to take a wide receiver to offset losing one of the more dynamic receivers in the NFL, they focus on the defensive side with this pick. They need a defensive tackle that can play every snap and Hankins is more versatile than what they had a few years ago when they
had the “Williams Wall.” He can stop the run and has some pass rush ability.

26. Green Bay Packers: Menelick Watson, OT/Florida State
The biggest need on the Packers is getting help protecting Aaron Rogers. He was sacked a career high 51 times last season, as the Pack ranked 31st in pass protection. Watson doesn’t have the experience that the tackles taken ahead of him do…but he’s a freakish athlete and playing on the right side should keep the pressure of facing the opposing team’s best pass rusher off of him.

27. Houston Texans: Kevin Minter, ILB/LSU
Who’s going to play ILB for the Texans? Brian Cushing is recovering from a torn ACL, and might not be ready to start the season. And even if he is, they don’t exactly have a very good player next to him. Drafting Minter would boost the middle of the Texans defense a lot.

28. Denver Broncos: Sheldon Richardson, DT/Missouri
The Broncos still need help at defensive tackle, and Richardson is the best available. Plug him into the middle of the Broncos defensive line and you’ll see the Broncos good defense improve even more.

29. New England Patriots: Jonathon Cyprien, S/Florida International
The Patriots defense gave up a ton of points last season, and Joe Flacco picked them apart for the second AFC Championship Game in a row. Last year Devin McCourty stepped in to play safety, but I think he might move back to corner to help them there. So I think the Patriots take a small school safety that showed himself to be a late first round pick at the Senior Bowl.

30. Atlanta Falcons: Alex Okafor, DE/Texas
The Falcons are looking for a pass rusher, especially after releasing Ray Edwards in season and then John Abraham after the season. With reports that Tony Gonzalez is going to come back for another season, I don’t see the Falcons targeting a tight end with this pick. Pass rusher is where it is.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Sylvester Williams, DT/North Carolina
Williams is listed as a DT because that’s what he played in college, but in the 49ers 3-4 defense he’d technically be an end. The 49ers are pretty stacked all over, but they need to bolster defensive line depth and Williams can spell Justin Smith, who’s over 30 and decline in play can become sudden in the trenches when you get on that side of it.

32. Baltimore Ravens: Manti Te’o, MLB/Notre Dame
And Te’o goes in the first round! The Ravens had Ray Lewis retire, and then couldn’t keep Ellerbe in free agency. So the Ravens are a bit desperate to get someone in the middle of their defense that knows what they’re doing. While his fake girlfriend story might not cause his draft stock to fall, there’s a good chance his slow 40-yard dash at the Combine and his poor showing against Alabama in the National Championship Game could cause him to fall to the end of the first round. Te’o might be the best available player, and he would fill what has become a big void for the Ravens defense in just a few weeks after winning the Super Bowl.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Browns targeting Steelers Free Agents

I saw something interesting on Twitter today. Are the Cleveland Browns targeting three of the Steelers free agents?

Keenan Lewis, CB - The Browns have a need on the opposite side of Joe Haden. Sheldon Brown will be playing elsewhere, and Lewis is a tremendous upgrade and gives Cleveland two top corners in a conference with Ben Roethlisbeget, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton throwing the football around. They would also be weakening a big division and historical rival with this move, it makes sense. I think he's a top re-sign priority for the Steelers, and if he values winning over the most money he can get, he should stay in Pittsburgh.

Mike Wallace, WR - The Browns could use an upgrade at this position, especially since Norv Turner offenses like to throw downfield and Wallace is one of the fastest receivers in the league. However, if the coaching staff likes what they see in he growth of their receivers, the Browns may choose to spend their money elsewhere. Word is the Steelers will try to re-sign Wallace and they won't let him go to a division rival without some type of fight.

James Harrison, OLB - Harrison is one player who the Steelers will not be trying to re-sigh, seeing how they just cut him. New defensive coordinator Ray Horton, a former Steelers defensive coach, is switching the Browns to a 3-4 defense and one of the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the last decade is Harrison. The two know each other, and Harrison has already stated that he would like to at for his hometown Browns...and show the Steelers twice a year that he's still a top pass rusher. This is an area of need for the Browns and I can see them doing this if they can't get a younger player at the position in free agency.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

AFC North Offseason Preview

In a few days, the NFL's Free Agency period. This weekend, player agents can negotiate contracts with teams but are not allowed to set up meetings between players and teams. So if a team decides to agree to a contract with a player, they must do so "blind." Also, any contract agreements cannot be finalized until Tuesday, when Free Agency officially begins. However, teams can sign their own pending free agents to deals.

This is also a way for teams to learn the market value for their free agent players and can then offer a contract accordingly, or choose to let a player walk because they feel that they can't pay the player an amount to keep him.

Free Agency is more than just an opportunity to sign proven players from other teams. It also shapes the NFL Draft. If you have a need at WR and sign a top guy at that position in Free Agency, then you can focus on another need in the draft.

So here is my offseason look at each team of the AFC North. I will look at their needs, their top Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), record from last season, and where they will be drafting. I will also look at possible first round draft selections for each team.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8 last season, missed playoffs)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have never been big players in Free Agency. They don't sign the huge names, other than keeping their own players when they want/can. So I do not expect them to go after any big names, other than possibly attempting to resign Mike Wallace. The free agent I think they most need to resign is Keenan Lewis, who had an excellent season in his first as a starting cornerback.

The big question mark for the Steelers this offseason is what happens with OLB James Harrison. They want to renegotiate his contract and he won't take a pay cut. Harrison is 35 years old, and has had knee and back issues the past few years that are likely to just get worse instead of better. There is a chance that the Steelers end up just cutting Harrison.

Top UFA's:
Keenan Lewis, CB
Mike Wallace, WR
Rashard Mendenhall, RB
Max Starks, OT
Plaxico Burress, WR

Draft Position: 17th

First Round possibilities:
Jarvis Jones, OLB/Georgia
Manti Te'o, ILB/Notre Dame
Kenny Vaccaro, S/Texas
Alec Ogletree, LB/Georgia
Eddy Lacey, RB/Alabama
Kevin Minter, ILB/LSU
Jonathon Hankins, DT/Ohio State
Jonathon Jenkins, DT/Georgia

Needs:
Outside Linebacker
Inside Linebacker
Running Back

Baltimore Ravens (10-6, won Super Bowl)
After winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens front office didn't have much time to celebrate. They had to get the team under the cap, resign free agent quarterback Joe Flacco to a long-term contract, and figure out their goals in free agency and the draft.

The Ravens locked up Flacco, and are focusing on Dannell Ellerbe over Paul Kruger. Ellerbe played as Ray Lewis' replacement when he injured his arm during the season, and the Ravens would like to keep him. Kruger had his best season ever, and is expect to sign for more money somewhere else than what the Ravens can give him, not to mention the drafted Courtney Upshaw in last year's draft so they likely feel they have a decent or better replacement for Kruger.

Top UFA's:
Paul Kruger, OLB
Dannell Ellerbe, ILB
Ed Reed, S
Cary Williams, CB

Draft Position: 32nd

First Round possibilities:
Jonathon Hankins, DT/Ohio State
Manti Te'o, ILB/Notre Dame
Jonathon Cyprien, S/Florida International
Jonathon Jenkins, DT/Georgia

Needs:
Inside Linebacker
Offensive Tackle
Safety

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, eliminated in first round of playoffs)
This team is hard to predict, for me at least, because Mike Brown sometimes makes moves that leaves you scratching your head. He let Jonathon Joseph walk away without making any real attempt at keeping him. Mike Brown has the smallest scouting staff in the National Football League and doesn't have a general manager, nor a personnel man at his side to lean on.

The Bengals are a young team. However they will be looking to upgrade a defense that was pretty good last year and they will also be looking to add a bell cow type of running back to their offense to give their passing game some help.

Top UFA's:
Robert Geathers, DE
Pat Simms, DT
Andre Smith, OT
Rey Maualuga, LB

Draft Position: 21st

First Round possibilities:
Kenny Vaccaro, S/Texas
Eddy Lacey, RB/Alabama
Xavier Rhodes, CB-S/Florida State

Needs:
Safety
Offensive Tackle
Defensive Line
Running Back

Cleveland Browns (5-11, missed playoffs)
The Cleveland Browns have made some big changes in this offseason. I honestly could have written an entire article just on them. New owner Jimmy Haslam fired the previous coaching and front office regime. New head coach Rob Chudzinski brought in Norv Turner to be the offensive coordinator. Mike Lombardi was hired as the Vice President of Player Personnel and this past week was promoted to General Manager.

Chudzinski worked with Cam Newton in Carolina the past few years, but the Browns currently have last year's starter at the position in Brandon Weeden. Weeden has the arm to make the downfield throws that are often staples in an offense ran by either Chudzinski or Turner, but he doesn't have the running ability of a Cam Newton. So the Browns might be looking to change quarterbacks, seeing how they have yet to show any type of commitment to Weeden.

The Browns also hired Ray Horton as defensive coordinator who will be running a "hybrid" 3-4/4-3 defense but I expect to see the Browns mostly in a 3-4 look.

Top UFA's:
Josh Cribbs, WR
Phil Dawson, K

Draft Position: 6th

First Round possibilities:
Ezekiel Ansah, DE-OLB/BYU
Dion Jordan, DE-OLB/Oregon
Dee Millner, CB/Alabama
Geno Smith, QB/West Virginia
Jarvis Jones, OLB/Georgia

Needs:
Outside Linebacker
Tight End
Quarterback
Inside Linebacker

And that is my preview for the AFC North's offseason. Later this week I will be positing my first mock draft for the first round.