Wednesday, February 22, 2012

My first 2012 Mock Draft

The Super Bowl is over, congrats to the New York Giants. I surely hope Eli Manning tying Big Ben with two Super Bowl rings will light a fire under his ass to get him not just back to the big game, but up on the podium afterwards raising the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in his career.

Now that the season is over, it's time to focus on free agency and the draft. The Steelers almost never make a big splash in free agency other than to sign their own free agents, so I am going to focus more on the draft. So here I am giving you my first round mock for the 2012 NFL Draft.

  1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford - Colt's Owner Jim Isray fired the Polians and the entire coaching staff after the Colts won just two games the entire season. They are going to rebuild, and they are going to take the quarterback that many say is the best QB prospect since John Elway. The NFL is a quarterback driven league now, and the Colts are going to get who they think is the next great NFL quarterback to replace Peyton Manning who I expect them to trade or release in the very near future.
  2. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State - Now this is a pick that I think will be traded. It's almost a certainty that the Luck will be gone to the Colts. The next best quarterback prospect in this draft is Baylor's Robert Griffin III. Now I don't predict the trades in my mock drafts because anything can keep them from happening, but if one high pick is going to be traded, it would be this one. The Rams have former first overall pick Sam Bradford at quarterback, but he has little to work with in offensive weapons. Blackmon is the best available receiver and while he may not be worth the #2 overall selection, I have him as the Rams pick. They can trade down a few spots and still get him, so that's why I feel this pick will likely be traded for Griffin III if they can find a suitable trade offer.
  3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT USC - The Vikings need to stabilize their offensive line if they want last year's first round draft pick Christian Ponder, to succeed. His blind side needs protection, and Kalil is the best available tackle not only in the draft, but is likely better than any free agent at the position that is going to hit the market.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama - Most people have the Browns trading up to take Robert Griffin III, or if they stand pat and stay at #4 that they would take him there if another team doesn't trade in front of them to take him. I think any interest they might have in Griffin III is a smokescreen. The Browns haven't had any luck taking a quarterback in the first round since they came back, Brady Quinn was a bust and Tim Couch couldn't stay healthy. The other issue with Griffin III is that he didn't take snaps under center and if the Browns are going to take a quarterback in the first round, they can't take a guy who needs to learn how to take snaps under center. Also, the quarterback doesn't have any weapons around him, and Griffin III isn't going to be able to make the Browns current receiving options look any better. Richardson isn't a receiver, but he is very good at catching balls out of the backfield, can motion out in a more spread formation as a receiver on short to intermediate routes, and is one hell of a runner. He would be a weapon for whoever the Browns have as a quarterback next season, and I think they try to sign Matt Flynn in free agency to fill the quarterback dilemma.
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU - Aquib Talib might be going to jail. Even if he avoids jail time, he might get hit with a significant suspension for even being a suspect in a felony assault with a deadly weapon case. Their other starting cornerback, Ronde Barber, might be retiring this offseason. Even if Barber doesn't retire, he's lost a step or two and the Buccaneers could upgrade the position anyhow. 
  6. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor - The Redskins are a candidate to trade up and take RGIII if they are afraid that Cleveland is going to take him by trading up or sitting pat and taking him at #4. But I think they can still get him by sticking at the #6 overall pick. Rex Grossman and John Beck are the two quarterbacks on the roster with any starting or NFL experience at all. If the Shannahan era is going to be a success, the Redskins need to find a quarterback that can take the team to the playoffs on a consistent basis.
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa - Last year the Jaguars took Blaine Gabbert as their first round pick. He isn't surrounded by weapons, but the offensive line also lacks protection. It doesn't matter if you have Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens in their primes if the quarterback doesn't have time to make his reads and throw the ball. Last season the Jaguars had Guy Whimper at right tackle, and he was a sieve. His backup was an undrafted rookie, Cameron Bradfield. They could draft Reiff and put him at right tackle, or make him the left tackle and put Eugene Monroe, a former first round pick, at right tackle. Either way, Gabbert has better protection.
  8. Miami Dolphins: Michael Brockers, DT LSU - The Dolphins are not an easy team to mock draft for. They need a quarterback so they might be in the running to move up and take Robert Griffin III, or trade back and try to snag Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M. I don't see them taking Tannehill at the #8 pick though, but you never know with owner Stephen Ross. Their new head coach, Joe Philbin, wants to switch Miami's defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3. They need more bodies along the defensive line to do so, therefore Brockers fits here.
  9. Carolina Panthers: Devon Still, DT Penn State - The Panthers have two big needs on defense, defensive tackle and cornerback. I would say their bigger need is corner, but the next best CB is Janoris Jenkins, and his character concerns I feel will keep him out of the top ten, possibly the top fifteen. So the next best pick for the Panthers if they go defense is Devon Still, who fills their other biggest defensive need. Jenkins is still a possibility, and if they can trade back into the mid-to-late teens they might do so and take Jenkins there.
  10. Buffalo Bills: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina - The current Bills front office is good a telegraphing their draft picks, they talked about taking a running back in 2010 and then took C.J. Spiller. This year, Head Coach Chan Gailey has complained about not being able to get a pass rush. They didn't have a player finish the 2011 season with more than 5.5 sacks this season. Ingram isn't the prototypical defensive end with his height and arm length, but he has tremendous explosion off the line of scrimmage and has a great motor. The Bills and wide receiver Stevie Johnson are reportedly "far apart" in contract negotiations, so wide receiver Michael Floyd of Notre Dame is also a possibility here.
  11. Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford - The Chiefs current right tackle is Barry Richardson, and he isn't very good in pass protection. The Chiefs will likely be starting  Matt Cassel at quarterback, though they can resign Kyle Orton and let them battle for the starting job in training camp.  No matter what the do at the quarterback position, the guy is going to need protection, so I think they go with Martin. Another possible pick on the offensive line would be Stanford's David DeCastro, a guard. One of their unrestricted free agents is wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, so Michael Floyd or Baylor's Kendall Wright could be an option here also.
  12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Couples, DE North Carolina: The Seahawks pass rush was weak last season, finishing in the bottom ten in sacks. They play in a division with two number one overall picks (San Francisco's Alex Smith and St. Louis' Sam Bradford). If they want to be in the mix for the division crown or a wild card spot in the near future, they need to get to the quarterback. Couples, while he lacked effort at times last season, has all the talent to be a premier rush end in the NFL. Pete Carroll believes that he can coach anyone up and that his rah-rah style will get anyone to play hard. 
  13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, G Stanford - The Cardinals need to upgrade their offensive front. They are going to be paying big money to a quarterback (either Peyton Manning or Kevin Kolb) and he needs protected. They are also going to be a team that runs the ball a decent amount of the time with Beanie Wells, who is an inside runner so DeCastro helps in that regard also. This is rather high for a guard, but DeCastro is going to be a damn good interior offensive lineman that can pass protect and run block.
  14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama: He has multiple arrests on his record, but since being kicked out of school at Florida he has seemed to clean up his act. Jerry Jones is willing to look past off the field discrepancies if you've got a lot of talent, and Jenkins has talent. The defensive backfield in Dallas is a complete mess and needs multiple upgrades. Mike Jenkins was awful last season and Terrance Newman isn't the player he once was. While Mike Jenkins might get a mulligan seeing how he's a recent first round pick, Newman might be gone this offseason.
  15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, MLB Boston College: Last year, the "Dream Team" was more of a nightmare. A big part of their defensive problem was that their linebackers couldn't stop a nosebleed most of the season. Kuechly would fix part of that problem at the middle linebacker position. If the Eagles sign Stephen Tulloch in free agency, I see them taking Kendall Wright or Michael Floyd here to replace DeSean Jackson who they will either let walk in free agency or franchise tag and then trade, either way I don't see Jacskon on the Eagles next season.
  16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, OLB Alabama - The Jets need to upgrade their pass rush, and the MVP of the BCS National Championship Game already knows the 3-4 defense since that's what Alabama runs. Bringing him in doesn't only bring a very good pass rusher to the Jets so they don't have to constantly blitz to get pressure, he's also strong against the run. 
  17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama - The second straight Alabama player taken, he fills a need for the Bengals. Nate Clements was inconsistent and is a free agent after the 2012 season anyhow. Leon Hall tore his Achilles and isn't going to be ready to start the 2012 season, and it's not clear when he might finally be able to take the field and how effective he will be this season. Kirkpatrick's marijuana possession charges have been dropped, but the Bengals wouldn't worry about that anyhow, character concerns aren't a big deal in Cincinnati.
  18. San Diego Chargers: Mark Barron, SS Alabama - Yes, another member of the Crimson Tide to make it three straight. Barron fills a need for a secondary that needs some help. They rolled the dice on Bob Sanders last season, and as sure as the sun rises in the east, Sanders ended up on injured reserve. He is also an unrestricted free agent and likely won't be resigned. Barron is the best safety in the draft and should be the pick here for the Chargers.
  19. Chicago Bears: Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame - The Bears don't really have that go-to guy at wide receiver. They tried Roy Williams last season and he didn't really work out all that great. He's a free agent and probably won't be coming back to da Bears. Jay Cutler was at his best when he had Brandon Marshall to throw to in Denver. The Bears will likely be franchising running back Matt Forte, and if they don't he might sign elsewhere, forcing them to become even more of a passing offense. To do that, Cutler needs that go-to receiver and Floyd can definitely be that.
  20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus, DE Illinois - The Titans play in a division with Peyton Manning (who is likely going to be traded or released and replaced with first overall pick Andrew Luck), Matt Schaub, and first round draft pick Blaine Gabbert. They need to bolster their pass rush and Mercilus fits the type of defensive end the Titans like. He's a very good pass rusher and should lead the team in sacks on an annual basis. Derrick Morgan looked bad last season and even if he turns out to be a good player, there still isn't anyone that good across from him. 
  21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB Miami - The Bengals are a team that likes to target specific positions per round, and running back is also a need. They took a corner with the pick they got from the Bengals, with their second pick I think they go offense. Cedric Benson is their current running back, but he's not the back he was in 2009, he has had fewer and fewer rushing yards from 2009 to 2011. He's about to hit the age of 30, and that's where running backs really seem to hit a wall. He's also never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season and doesn't seem to be able to break the long runs anymore. The past two seasons, he hasn't averaged 4.0 yards a carry. Miller would bring not only youth to the position, he is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball. Last season with Miami he had seven 100+ yard games and nine touchdowns. 
  22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta): Kendall Wright, WR Baylor - The Browns don't have any offensive weapons. Even if they take RGIII in the top four, he still doesn't have anyone to throw to. And if they don't take RGIII, then whoever ends up being their quarterback doesn't have anyone to throw to. SO Wright makes sense here no matter what they do with their first pick. If they don't take Wright, Mike Adams of Ohio State would be an option, they need a right tackle to help protect whoever their QB is.
  23. Detroit Lions: Nick Perry, DE USC - Yes, the Lions for the third straight season take a defensive lineman in the first round. Their biggest need on offense is running back, and there isn't anyone worth taking at this juncture. They also play in a division with league MVP Aaron Rogers, Jay Cutler, and first round pick Christian Ponder in the division. Head Coach Jim Schwartz is a defensive minded head coach, and his defensive line loves to get to the quarterback and just wreak havoc. Cliff Avril doesn't want the franchise tag, and if they give it to him but still can't reach a long-term deal, they will be looking for his replacement next spring anyhow. Kyle Vanden Bosch is on the wrong side of 30 years old, and nobody knows how much longer he's going to play at a good level. 
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cordy Glenn, G Georgia - The Steelers will likely be releasing Chris Kemoeatu this offseason for various reasons. The Steelers need to get under the salary cap and releasing Kemo would save them around $3.5M...not to mention he was benched twice last season and is a complete bonehead. He's good for at least three stupid penalties a game, either holding when there was no reason to, a false start at the worst possible time, or an unnecessary roughness penalty. The Steelers need to protect Ben Roethlisberger, and Glenn can also blow open holes in the run game for Isaac "Redzone" Redman who will be the starting running back with Rashard Mendenhall tearing his ACL in the season finale against the Cleveland Browns. It's unknown when Mendenhall would be able to play next season nor how effective he would be when he comes back. Another route the Steelers could go, especially if Glenn isn't there for some reason is Alabama inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower, who played in the 3-4 in college and fills a need with James Farrior losing probably two steps at 37 years old.
  25. Denver Broncos: Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State - Brodrick Bunkley had a very good year as a run stuffer, but the second defensive tackle position left a lot to be desired. Worthy would be able to come in and be a big help on the defensive line. He didn't have great sack numbers in his career at Michigan State, but he was disruptive and got a lot of QB pressures, forcing the quarterback to pass before he wanted to. He also has a mean streak that could bring a violent mentality to the Denver defense. He's got the potential to be a very, very good defensive tackle with his athletic ability.
  26. Houston Texans: Mohamed Sanu, WR Rutgers - The Texans are likely to resign running back Arian Foster, and allow outside linebacker/defensive end Mario Williams walk in free agency. Last season, Andre Johnson missed a good chunk of time with a hamstring injury and they don't have much across from him anyhow. I think the Texans take Sanu, who could come in and take the #2 receiver spot in training camp, and gives their offense an even better passing game...and opens things up even more for Arian Foster and the running game. 
  27. New England (from New Orleans): Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State - The Patriots had the worst defense in the league last season. The Albert Haynesworth experiment was a waste of time, but it seems that the Patriots are sticking with the 4-3 as their base defense. Even if they switch back to the 3-4, Cox can play defensive end in that system. Put him next to Vince Wilfork and the Patriots will have a strong interior defensive line that can stuff the run and cause some havoc for the quarterback.
  28. Green Bay Packers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB Nebraska - The Packers defense didn't have nearly as good of a year this season as they did in their 2010 Super Bowl Championship season. They weren't awful, but the offense really carried the team during the regular season.Their best corner is Charles Woodson who is just an absolute beast, however he is 35 years old and nobody knows how long he can play at this high level. Tramon Williams plays across from him and is a good corner, but behind him would be Sam Shields who might not be starter quality. Drafting Dennard would give the Packers insurance if they lose either Woodson or Williams to injury, and he would become a starter when Woodson's play falls off. 
  29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, ILB Alabama - I hate this pick for the Ravens, not because Hightower isn't a very good player, but because he'd be going to the Baltumore Ravens. Ray Lewis is still playing at a high level, but nobody knows when his career is going to drop off, he's going to be 37 when the season starts and the drop off could be sudden. Even if Lewis plays very well for another couple of seasons, Hightower can step in immediately at the other ILB spot and be a force while also being tutored by Lewis who is a future Hall of Famer. 
  30. San Francisco 49ers: Alshon Jeffery, WR South Carolina - The 49ers narrowly missed the Super Bowl this season. Alex Smith should get a long-term contract to play quarterback for the 49ers this offseason. If he doesn't, then the 49ers would likely hand the reigns over to Colin Kaepernick. No matter who is playing quarterback for the 2012 49ers, they need more weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Michael Crabtree hasn't been all that impressive, their most consistent receiver has been their right end Vernon Davis. They released Braylon Edwards during the season after he spent most of his time on the team with a knee injury. Ted Ginn, Jr. isn't even a #2 receiver, and is a free agent that might not be retained. The other options for the #2 receiver role aren't all that impressive either. Jeffery could step in and start this season, he's a big body for the QB to target and would give another dimension to their passing offense. Rumor however, has it that he's ballooned up and is running a 40-yard dash time of around 4.8 seconds...so if that's true he won't be picked until sometime in the second round by someone. But until I see his numbers from the NFL Scouting Combine, I will keep him here at the end of the first round.
  31. New England Patriots: Vinny Curry, DE/OLB Marshall - New England is still going to be focusing on defense with this pick, and they need someone who can rush the passer. Curry cannot only play a rush DE in the 4-3, but he can also play rush OLB in the 3-4 and the Patriots still run a hybrid defense though the 4-3 has become their base defense. Curry fits the need at both positions though, so he saves them a roster spot. Bellichick could also trade this pick to move back a few spots into the second round and still take Curry there.
  32. New York Giants: Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson - Jerry Reese's philosophy has normally been to take the best player available, and Allen would fit that description and also is a need. Jake Ballard played well last season, but he tore his ACL in the Super Bowl and nobody knows when he will play in 2012, if at all. Allen would fit well with the Giants offense and Ballard could have been upgraded anyhow and would still be a good option in two tight end sets.
Comments? Agree? Disagree? Feel free to post in the comment section and let me know what you think.

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